In a fascinating turn of events, President Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping has presented an intriguing spectacle of friendship and cooperation amidst a backdrop of deep-rooted tensions. The summit, a carefully choreographed display of camaraderie, belies the underlying forces pulling the two nations apart.
Trump, who has been a key driver of the decoupling between the US and China, now seems to be advocating for closer ties. This shift in stance is particularly notable given the context of the Iran war and the resulting geopolitical tensions.
The Summit's Deliverables
The summit produced some tangible outcomes, including a commitment from China to purchase Boeing jets and a promise to increase agricultural purchases from the US. Additionally, the two sides are negotiating a Board of Trade to facilitate trade in non-sensitive goods.
However, beneath this veneer of cooperation, there are signs of discord. Trump's public statements about Xi's Iran posture have left many questions unanswered. While Trump claims Xi pledged not to supply Iran with military equipment, he also acknowledged China's desire to continue purchasing Iranian oil.
The China Hawks' Influence
Trump's administration is divided on the issue of China. While Trump himself seems open to rapprochement, China hawks within his team have been working to undermine this potential thaw. The State and Treasury Departments have imposed sanctions on Chinese entities for their involvement in Iran's military procurement and oil trade.
Additionally, a White House memo accused Chinese entities of stealing AI technology from American companies, further straining relations.
Leaks and Hostility
Leaks from within the US government paint an even more hostile picture. Intelligence assessments suggest that China is exploiting the Iran war to gain an edge over the US in various domains, including diplomacy, military, and economics. Reports indicate that Chinese companies are engaging in clandestine arms sales to Iran, using third countries as intermediaries.
Xi's Role
Xi, too, has played his part in the friendly summit choreography. Despite warning Trump about the potential dangers of mishandling the Taiwan issue, Xi extended a warm welcome to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been sanctioned by China for his human rights criticisms.
Xi's reference to China's "great rejuvenation" and Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan as potentially going "hand in hand" is an interesting attempt at framing a narrative of cooperation.
Incentives for Truce
Both leaders have clear incentives to maintain the truce, at least for now. Trump wants to avoid any economic shocks during an election year, especially after Xi's rare earth mineral export ban during the trade war. Xi, on the other hand, likely sees strategic stability with the US as an opportunity to focus on China's own priorities, such as military modernization and technological dominance.
The Bigger Picture
Trump's push for closer economic ties with China is at odds with the prevailing political climate in the US, which has increasingly viewed Chinese capital with suspicion. Chinese investment in the US has plummeted in recent years, reflecting the growing security concerns and nationalistic sentiments.
Conclusion
The summit between Trump and Xi was a fascinating display of political theater, where two aging nationalist leaders performed a friendship that their governments seem unwilling to fully embrace. The underlying tensions and competing interests suggest that this truce may be temporary, and the world's most dangerous rivalry is far from resolved.
