Southern California braces for a weekend of severe weather, with an incoming atmospheric river storm bringing potential mudflows, debris flows, and even a tornado. The storm is expected to peak over the weekend in Los Angeles County, with the possibility of downtown Los Angeles experiencing its wettest November since 1985. Heavy rain could lead to damaging flooding and landslides, especially in areas affected by the January wildfires, such as the Eaton and Palisades fires. The storm began on Friday with scattered showers, and the biggest concerns are in areas burned by the January wildfires.
In Ventura County, the storm was stronger, with rain falling at a rate of about a quarter of an inch per hour. Nearby, parts of Santa Barbara had already accumulated more than 5 inches of rain by noon. In Altadena, near Rubio Canyon Trail, plots where homes once stood are soaking up the rainfall. Residents are taking precautions, with plastic tarps, netting, and sandbags being used to protect homes from potential mud and debris flows.
Despite the potential risks, some residents, like Sharon Gray, who owns Eaton Dam Stables near the ignition point in the canyon, are not as worried. She and a small group reacted quickly during the January fire, saving all 39 horses in Eaton Canyon. Gray believes her area can handle the rain, and she's more concerned about the attitudes of her neighbors, who have been somewhat apathetic since the fire.
The storm has also led to the closure of two Southern California amusement parks, Knott's Berry Farm and Six Flags Magic Mountain, on Friday due to inclement weather. Customers with Friday tickets can use them on any other day the park is open through the rest of the year.
The severe weather threat is expected to continue on Saturday, with a flood watch in effect from 4 a.m. to 10 p.m. Evacuation warnings are in place for areas near recent burn scars due to the risk of mud and debris flows. However, it remains unclear which areas will be hit hardest by the storm, as forecasters don't know exactly where the peak rain will be focused.
The storm is being powered by a 'cut-off low,' a notoriously difficult-to-forecast system that will spin around and go where it pleases. Most computer forecast projections suggest moderate to heavy rain, with downtown Los Angeles potentially receiving 2.62 inches of rain between late Thursday and Sunday, causing flooding and minor debris flows. However, there's a 30% chance of a worst-case scenario where downtown Los Angeles receives 4.81 inches of rain, leading to mudflows and debris flows.
The weather service office in Oxnard predicts a 70% chance of rain falling at 0.5 inches or more per hour in the Eaton and Palisades fire burn scars on Saturday. There's also a 38% chance of a rainfall rate of 1 inch or more per hour in those areas. Rain is expected to start falling in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties by Friday morning, with the heaviest rain expected late Friday into Saturday.
While tornadoes are not usually associated with California, they do occur and can pose a threat. The storm, powered by an atmospheric river, created a long band of rainfall stretching across the Pacific Ocean to San Francisco, which moved south and east towards Southern California. The storm has already caused damage in the San Francisco Bay Area, with downed trees and flooded streets.
