The NFL's overtime coin toss strategy: kicking or receiving? A deep dive into the pros and cons
The NFL's overtime rules have evolved significantly over the past decade and a half, and the question now is: what's the best strategy for the team that wins the coin toss? The San Francisco 49ers were heavily criticized for not understanding the rules when they chose to receive the ball first in Super Bowl LVIII, a game they ultimately lost. With no overtime games in last year's postseason, the 2025 regular season represented the next time a coach would have to make a similar decision knowing they should get the ball either way.
The most obvious case for kicking off first is that it tells you exactly what you need when you get the ball. "You know if they go down and get a field goal, you're going to probably be aggressive and maybe go for it on fourth down and things like that," said Brian Schottenheimer, head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. This can give the team with the ball second more control over the outcome, as they know they only need a field goal to win.
However, the clock factor is a significant con to kicking the ball first, particularly in the regular season. In the Jaguars-Raiders game, the Jaguars took 6:36 off the clock with their first drive, leaving the Raiders with less than four minutes to respond. This can be a significant disadvantage, especially if the team on defense uses its two timeouts to try to extend the game.
The third-drive factor also plays a central role in the decision-making process. In the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and 49ers, the 49ers won the coin toss and elected to take the ball first, citing the importance of the potentially game-deciding third drive. However, the Chiefs scored a touchdown and won the game, and Shanahan was heavily criticized for the decision.
Ultimately, the decision of whether to kick or receive the ball first is a complex one, and there are still plenty of circumstances that need to be taken into consideration. The reality is that there is more nuance and probably even more circumstances that will need to be taken into consideration. One decision may generally outweigh the other, but it may not always be true for every team.
