Imagine a world where China can launch rockets as frequently and cheaply as SpaceX. That future might be closer than you think, as one Chinese company is on the verge of making history by landing a reusable rocket for the first time! But here's where it gets controversial... this leap forward could dramatically shift the balance of power in space, raising serious questions about competition and even national security.
LandSpace, a rising star among China's commercial space companies, is preparing to launch its Zhuque-3 rocket. From the outside, it bears a striking resemblance to SpaceX's Falcon 9, with its similar size and stage separation design. The launch window is potentially opening soon, with airspace warnings indicating a possible launch around 11 pm EST (04:00 UTC the next day), or local noon at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. If successful, the Zhuque-3 (named after the Vermillion Bird, a mythical creature) will not only be the largest commercial rocket ever launched from China but, more importantly, could mark the beginning of China's reusable rocket era.
The plan is ambitious: after propelling the rocket towards orbit, the first-stage booster will detach and perform a controlled descent back to Earth, landing on a newly constructed pad in the Gobi Desert, about 240 miles (390 kilometers) from the launch site. This "return to launch site" maneuver, pioneered by SpaceX and recently replicated by Blue Origin, involves the booster firing its engines to slow down and guide itself to a precise vertical landing roughly eight and a half minutes after liftoff.
But let's be realistic. Space is hard, and landing a rocket is even harder. LandSpace hasn't publicly stated their odds of success for either the launch or the landing. And this is the part most people miss... even with the best technology and meticulous planning, failures are common in the space industry. It took Blue Origin two attempts to successfully land their New Glenn booster on a floating platform after launching from Florida's Cape Canaveral. SpaceX, the undisputed leader in reusable rockets, endured numerous setbacks before achieving their first successful landing a decade ago.
LandSpace, founded in 2015 amidst China's space policy reforms that opened the door to private investment, has already made significant strides. They've secured over $400 million in funding from venture capital firms and government-backed investment funds, enabling them to develop their own liquid-fueled engines and the Zhuque-2, the world's first methane-fueled rocket to reach orbit in 2023. The Zhuque-2 has now logged four successful missions out of six attempts.
However, the Zhuque-3 represents a major step up. Its development is driven by China's burgeoning demand for satellite services. Two massive satellite constellations are planned for deployment in low Earth orbit, each requiring thousands of satellites to provide global data and internet connectivity. To compete with SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other emerging US launch companies, China desperately needs to scale up both satellite production and rocket reusability.
And this is where things get interesting. Just a few months ago, US military officials identified China's progress in reusable rocketry as a potential game-changer, one that could significantly enhance their ability to deploy assets in space. As Brig. Gen. Brian Sidari of the Space Force put it, the concern is when China masters reusable launch, allowing them to put more capabilities into orbit at a faster pace.
Currently, China relies on a variety of expendable rockets, launching far less frequently than the United States. This year, China has conducted 77 orbital launch attempts, but no single rocket type has flown more than 13 times. In contrast, SpaceX's Falcon 9 has been responsible for 153 of the 182 launches by US rockets.
The company that first masters reusable rocketry in China will undoubtedly gain a significant advantage. The Zhuque-3 is one of the first contenders. In its initial configuration, it will be capable of carrying up to 17,600 pounds (8 metric tons) to low Earth orbit, factoring in the fuel needed for booster recovery. The rocket stands approximately 216 feet (65.9 meters) tall. The first stage is powered by nine TQ-12A engines, burning methane and liquid oxygen to generate over 1.6 million pounds of thrust. The second stage uses a single TQ-15A engine, also methane-fueled, producing about 200,000 pounds of thrust. These engines are the same ones successfully used on the smaller Zhuque-2 rocket.
LandSpace has plans to upgrade the Zhuque-3, increasing its propellant capacity and using more powerful engines. This upgraded version would be able to carry over 40,000 pounds (18.3 metric tons) in reusable mode, or slightly more with an expendable booster.
While the Zhuque-3 borrows design elements from SpaceX's Falcon 9, such as the nine-engine configuration, deployable landing legs, and grid fins for steering, it also incorporates features from SpaceX's Starship. The Zhuque-3's primary structure is made of stainless steel, and its engines burn methane, unlike the Falcon 9's kerosene fuel.
To prepare for the Zhuque-3's debut, LandSpace built a prototype rocket for launch and landing demonstrations. This test vehicle successfully flew to an altitude of 10 kilometers (about 33,000 feet) in September 2024 and achieved a pinpoint vertical landing, validating the rocket's guidance systems and engine restart capabilities.
LandSpace isn't alone in this race. Another reusable booster, the Long March 12A, developed by one of China's state-owned rocket firms, is also undergoing preflight preparations at Jiuquan. It could launch before the end of the year, although no firm date has been announced. The Long March 12A has similar performance capabilities to the Zhuque-3 and will also use methane-fueled engines. The Shanghai Institute of Spaceflight Technology, its developer, also plans to attempt a landing on the first flight.
Several other Chinese companies are also making strides in reusable rocket technology. Space Pioneer was close to launching its Tianlong-3 rocket but experienced an accidental launch during a booster test. They have since completed a successful static fire test and displayed their rocket on the launch pad. CAS Space has shipped its first Kinetica-2 rocket to Jiuquan, while Galactic Energy has completed test firings of its Pallas-1 rocket's first and second stages. I-Space is developing the partially reusable Hyperbola-3, potentially launching next year from Hainan Island, and has even unveiled an ocean-going drone ship for rocket landings. Deep Blue Aerospace is also working on vertical landing technology for its Nebula-1 rocket.
These rockets generally fall into the small- to medium-class performance range. While it's uncertain whether all these companies will attempt to land their boosters on their initial flights, they all have reusability roadmaps.
China's largest rocket developer, the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, is focusing on larger, more ambitious projects, including the Long March 10, designed for crewed lunar missions with reusable boosters, and the fully reusable Long March 9, a super-heavy rocket similar to SpaceX's Starship, potentially debuting in the 2030s.
So, what do you think? Will China succeed in landing a reusable rocket soon? And what impact will this have on the global space landscape? Is this a positive step towards more accessible space travel, or a potential cause for concern? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
